You own the assumptions; we own the formula. We choose which knobs the
answer needs and prove the math between them — you choose what each is set to. The
defaults are one example, not a forecast; override any of them and the chart re-runs.
Price exposure — None
None — this dimension of risk is structurally absent for this strategy. Not "small": genuinely doesn't apply (e.g. self-custodied XRP has no counterparty; a bank deposit has no smart contract).
See the strategy's Classroom card for why it carries this level on this dimension.
Price exposure — Low
Low — present but small, either because of a strong structural mitigant (FDIC insurance, segregated customer assets) or because the exposure surface is narrow relative to deployed capital.
See the strategy's Classroom card for why it carries this level on this dimension.
Price exposure — Medium
Medium — material exposure with documented real-world losses for strategies of this class, but the structure includes recovery mechanisms (LGD math, first-loss buffers, protocol diversity) that usually prevent a total wipeout.
See the strategy's Classroom card for why it carries this level on this dimension.
Price exposure — High
High — the dominant exposure for this strategy. Worst case is total or near-total loss of the affected portion of the position. When a strategy reads High here, the matching assumption knobs become load-bearing for the chart outcome — tune them with intention rather than leaving them at default.
See the strategy's Classroom card for why it carries this level on this dimension.
Counterparty risk — None
None — this dimension of risk is structurally absent for this strategy. Not "small": genuinely doesn't apply (e.g. self-custodied XRP has no counterparty; a bank deposit has no smart contract).
See the strategy's Classroom card for why it carries this level on this dimension.
Counterparty risk — Low
Low — present but small, either because of a strong structural mitigant (FDIC insurance, segregated customer assets) or because the exposure surface is narrow relative to deployed capital.
See the strategy's Classroom card for why it carries this level on this dimension.
Counterparty risk — Medium
Medium — material exposure with documented real-world losses for strategies of this class, but the structure includes recovery mechanisms (LGD math, first-loss buffers, protocol diversity) that usually prevent a total wipeout.
See the strategy's Classroom card for why it carries this level on this dimension.
Counterparty risk — High
High — the dominant exposure for this strategy. Worst case is total or near-total loss of the affected portion of the position. When a strategy reads High here, the matching assumption knobs become load-bearing for the chart outcome — tune them with intention rather than leaving them at default.
See the strategy's Classroom card for why it carries this level on this dimension.
Smart-contract risk — None
None — this dimension of risk is structurally absent for this strategy. Not "small": genuinely doesn't apply (e.g. self-custodied XRP has no counterparty; a bank deposit has no smart contract).
See the strategy's Classroom card for why it carries this level on this dimension.
Smart-contract risk — Low
Low — present but small, either because of a strong structural mitigant (FDIC insurance, segregated customer assets) or because the exposure surface is narrow relative to deployed capital.
See the strategy's Classroom card for why it carries this level on this dimension.
Smart-contract risk — Medium
Medium — material exposure with documented real-world losses for strategies of this class, but the structure includes recovery mechanisms (LGD math, first-loss buffers, protocol diversity) that usually prevent a total wipeout.
See the strategy's Classroom card for why it carries this level on this dimension.
Smart-contract risk — High
High — the dominant exposure for this strategy. Worst case is total or near-total loss of the affected portion of the position. When a strategy reads High here, the matching assumption knobs become load-bearing for the chart outcome — tune them with intention rather than leaving them at default.
See the strategy's Classroom card for why it carries this level on this dimension.
Liquidity risk — None
None — this dimension of risk is structurally absent for this strategy. Not "small": genuinely doesn't apply (e.g. self-custodied XRP has no counterparty; a bank deposit has no smart contract).
See the strategy's Classroom card for why it carries this level on this dimension.
Liquidity risk — Low
Low — present but small, either because of a strong structural mitigant (FDIC insurance, segregated customer assets) or because the exposure surface is narrow relative to deployed capital.
See the strategy's Classroom card for why it carries this level on this dimension.
Liquidity risk — Medium
Medium — material exposure with documented real-world losses for strategies of this class, but the structure includes recovery mechanisms (LGD math, first-loss buffers, protocol diversity) that usually prevent a total wipeout.
See the strategy's Classroom card for why it carries this level on this dimension.
Liquidity risk — High
High — the dominant exposure for this strategy. Worst case is total or near-total loss of the affected portion of the position. When a strategy reads High here, the matching assumption knobs become load-bearing for the chart outcome — tune them with intention rather than leaving them at default.
See the strategy's Classroom card for why it carries this level on this dimension.
Unallocated XRP
XRP exposed to price but not in any yield strategy — the no-yield baseline against which every yield strategy's contribution is measured.
See this strategy's card in the Classroom Strategies section for the full write-up.
HYSA
Park USD in a high-yield savings account at a fixed APR. FDIC-insured, no crypto exposure.
See this strategy's card in the Classroom Strategies section for the full write-up.
USDC DeFi Lending
Supply USDC into a major DeFi lending venue (Aave / Compound) at a quoted supply APR. USD-denominated, with smart-contract risk modelled as scenario events.
See this strategy's card in the Classroom Strategies section for the full write-up.
XRP/RLUSD AMM LP
Provide liquidity to an XRP/RLUSD trading pool. Earns a share of swap fees and pays impermanent loss when XRP price moves. You can switch the pool's pricing rule between full-range Constant Product and Concentrated Liquidity on the Assumptions page.
See this strategy's card in the Classroom Strategies section for the full write-up.
Tokenized T-bills
Hold a tokenized U.S. T-bill wrapper. USD-denominated, monthly-compounding treasury yield. Wrapper bankruptcy is the only failure mode (high recovery).
See this strategy's card in the Classroom Strategies section for the full write-up.
Flare FXRP + Firelight stXRP
Move XRP onto the Flare network and stake it into Firelight for XRP-paid yield. Adds two ways to lose at once: the bridge and the staking contract.
See this strategy's card in the Classroom Strategies section for the full write-up.
earnXRP
An XRP yield product that won't reveal what it does with your money. The chart shows its advertised yield minus a 'risk-premium' discount for those hidden risks.
See this strategy's card in the Classroom Strategies section for the full write-up.
XLS-66d Custom Broker
Lend XRP into the XLS-66d vault under a broker you tune yourself. Dial APR, first-loss buffer, and LGD on the Assumptions page to model any point on the conservative→aggressive spectrum.
See this strategy's card in the Classroom Strategies section for the full write-up.
CEX Earn
Hold XRP in a centralized exchange's 'Earn' product for an XRP-paid yield. The big risk is the exchange itself going bankrupt — modelled as recovering only part of your money.
See this strategy's card in the Classroom Strategies section for the full write-up.
XRPL Auto-Yield
A product that auto-splits your XRP between liquidity pools and institutional loans. It markets eye-popping yields (88%!) built on token giveaways and cherry-picked peaks; the chart shows the realistic rate left after discounting eight hidden risks (about 10%).
See this strategy's card in the Classroom Strategies section for the full write-up.
Your Portfolio
Build your own blend across the standalone strategies. The see-through opposite of earnXRP — you pick, see, and can tweak every piece.
See this strategy's card in the Classroom Strategies section for the full write-up.
What the impact badge means
This badge is a SENSITIVITY meter, not a risk rating. It answers one question: if you're unsure about this number, how much does getting it wrong actually move your result? Three buckets, per strategy: 🟢 low impact (≤5%), 🟡 medium impact (5–25%), 🔴 high impact (>25%). The percentage is how much the terminal USD value shifts when this one knob is moved ±50% from its default, holding everything else fixed.
Why it isn't a risk badge: impact cuts BOTH ways. Turn a 🔴 high-impact knob in your favour and the upside grows; turn it against you and the downside deepens. A 🟢 low-impact knob barely moves the chart whichever way you set it. So this lens is about your INPUTS — where to spend your attention — not about how dangerous a strategy is. (The scenario badges describe the world; each strategy's four risk badges describe the strategy. See "Is the upside worth the risk?" for how the three lenses fit together.)
How to use it: if you have an opinion about a 🔴 high-impact knob, take five minutes to set it deliberately — it's steering your answer. You can mostly leave 🟢 low-impact ones at their defaults without distorting the picture.
Buckets are computed against the default run (capital $10,000, horizon 36 months, Holding Pattern scenario). A different run can shift them — for instance, the first-loss buffer + loss-given-default knobs read 🟢 low impact here because Holding Pattern never triggers a broker default; under an event-bearing scenario those same knobs jump to 🔴 high impact. The badge is informational, not run-specific.
What this range shows
The range bands show what THIS parameter has actually done over the named lookback windows — pulled from a daily refresh of the source feed (FRED for T-bill, Kraken for XRP price, DeFiLlama for USDC DeFi APY, monthly Anthropic summary for the keys without a clean public feed).
The bands are HISTORICAL CONTEXT, not a forecast. A 30-day range of 4.2–4.7% tells you where the parameter has actually been recently so you can pick an assumption with context; it does NOT predict the next 30 days. The simulator is deterministic by design — you own the assumption, and the chart shows the consequence of whatever value you pick (use the Edit button on this card to override the default).
The 'Live reading' at the top of the block is the latest observed value from the feed — also context only. It does NOT automatically become the chart's input: the chart runs the default shown on the row (or your override) so your lines never shift under you between visits. If you want the live number in your chart, type it in with the Edit button.
A partial window ("3 samples" instead of 30) shows up when a data source is still warming up. The sparkline below the ranges shows the 365-day trend shape downsampled to weekly buckets — useful for spotting big shifts at a glance.
Initial USD
The dollar value of the position at month 0, the moment your capital is deployed. Identical across every strategy because they all start from the same deployment capital you entered.
Final USD
The dollar value of the position at the end of the simulation horizon — the last month you chose. For the strategies held in XRP (everything except the dollar-based savings, USDC lending, and T-bills), this number already converts the XRP you'd be holding into dollars using the scenario's price in that final month — so you're always comparing dollars to dollars across every line.
Formulafinal USD = final XRP balance × XRP/USD price at the final month (for XRP-denominated strategies)
Return %
The total period return — the final dollar value divided by the initial dollar value, minus one, shown as a percent. The number is computed AFTER US federal income tax on the strategy's yield (default 24% — the most common US single-filer bracket; editable in the dashboard's "affects every line" drill). The tax drag applies only to the yield itself; your principal, default losses, AMM impermanent loss, and Unallocated XRP's unrealised price appreciation are not taxed in the simulator. State, local, and international tax aren't modelled. Return shown here is for the whole horizon — it is not annualised, so compare strategies at the same horizon length rather than across horizons.
Formulareturn % = (final USD − initial USD) ÷ initial USD × 100 (yield is reduced by the federal tax rate)
Default:Tax default: 24% federal marginal — change it in the "affects every line" drill
See the Methodology section in the Classroom for what the simulator does and does not tax.
Your Portfolio
Your own blend across any of the ten standalone strategies. Give each strategy you want to include a whole-number percentage (each one you include is called a 'leg'), and the percentages must add up to exactly 100. The Your Portfolio line on the chart is simply the weighted sum of those legs, month by month. It's the see-through opposite of earnXRP — the same idea of spreading your money around, except here you can see and adjust every piece.
Formulaportfolio value each month = sum of (weight × that leg's value)
See the Your Portfolio entry in the Classroom Strategies section for more.
Allocation total
The sum of every per-leg weight in Your Portfolio. It must equal exactly 100% — anything less would leave part of your capital with nowhere to go, and anything more is over-allocating. The total turns yellow as soon as you drift away from 100% and green again when you land back on it; if it isn't 100% when you click Run simulation, the page will show an inline message and ask you to fix it.
Scenario
A pre-built XRP/USD price path plus optional stress events (broker defaults, smart-contract exploits, stablecoin depegs). The chart re-runs every strategy under the selected scenario so you can compare like-for-like. Pick one from the dropdown above, or open the Custom scenario builder to author your own path and events.
See the Scenarios section in the Classroom for the full library.
XRP Price Appreciation Over Horizon
'Appreciation' simply means how much the price goes up (or down). This knob is YOUR guess for how much XRP's price will change, in percent, between the day you deploy and the end of the run — and it's the single biggest driver of every strategy that's held in XRP.
How to read the number: 0 means flat (no change); 100 means +100% (the price doubles); 1000 means +1000% (the price becomes 11×); −50 means the price is cut in half. Each named scenario comes pre-loaded with a sensible default that fits its story — Slow Bull +100%, Crypto Winter −68%, Holding Pattern 0%, and so on — so picking a scenario fills this in for you. You're then free to override it to ask things like "what would Slow Bull look like if XRP rose 500% instead?"
Why it matters so much: for anything held in XRP, your dollar result is simply the amount of XRP you hold times XRP's price. Yield grows the AMOUNT of XRP you own; this knob grows the PRICE of each one — and the two multiply together. That's how an XRP strategy paying 7.5% a year can turn $10,000 into roughly $137,000 if XRP also climbs +1000% over three years. The dollar-based strategies (savings, USDC, T-bills) hold no XRP, so this knob does nothing to them — and watching that contrast on the chart is itself one of the lessons.
Default:0% (flat — default before you pick a scenario)
Compounding: Multiplies through XRP-denominated yield: at any month t, position USD = XRP balance × scenario price at t. Yield grows the XRP balance; this knob grows the price. The two compound in USD.
User assumption — the simulator does not predict XRP price. Pick a number that reflects your own view, then watch the chart.
The ride — drawdown and time underwater
These two rows describe what holding this strategy through this scenario would FEEL like, not just where it ends. 'Deepest drawdown' is the largest fall from a high point to a later low point along the line — shown in dollars on your actual deployment and as a percent of that high. 'Months below deployment' counts how many months the position sat worth less than what you put in. Two strategies can end at the same final value while one of them spent a year deeply underwater on the way — and the biggest real-world failure mode in investing is selling at the bottom of exactly that stretch. If the drawdown number here would make you sell, the strategy's final value is fiction for you. These numbers describe the scenario YOU chose — they replay nothing from the past and predict nothing about the future.
Formuladeepest drawdown = max over the horizon of (running peak − later value); months below deployment = count of months with value < initial capital
Computed from this line's own monthly values under the current scenario and assumptions.
What you control
Decisions you'd actually make in real life — capital deployed, time horizon, which scenario to test against, and (for the Your Portfolio composer) how to allocate across strategies. These are the dashboard's always-visible controls because they're inputs the user owns directly.
See the Methodology section in the Classroom for the full breakdown.
What the world does
Things outside your control that the simulator still needs a value for — yield rates, default and recovery profiles, the federal tax rate, transaction costs. Every value here has a default you can override for this session. Splitting these from "what you control" teaches the correct decomposition: the most common personal-finance mental error is treating world assumptions as fixed and own behavior as the only variable, when reality is the reverse.
See the Methodology section in the Classroom for the full breakdown.
Details
Unallocated XRP
XRP exposed to price but not in any yield strategy — the no-yield baseline against which every yield strategy's contribution is measured.
Initial (month 0)
$9,995.00
Final (month 36)
$3,198.40
Return
-68.00%
Deepest drawdown
−$6,797 (−68.0%, month 18)
Months below deployment
36 of 36
Risk profile
Price: High
Counterparty: None
Contract: None
Liquidity: None
App default — set by the app's creator, no live data source. Edit if you have a different view.
APR stands for Annual Percentage Rate — the yearly interest a high-yield savings account (HYSA for short) pays you just for keeping dollars on deposit. A HYSA is an ordinary savings account, usually at an online bank, that pays a lot more interest than a typical neighbourhood bank. At a 4.5% APR, $10,000 earns roughly $450 over a year — a touch more once you count monthly compounding (explained in the Compounding note below).
This is about as safe as earning yield gets. In the US, money in a bank account is protected by the FDIC — the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, a government agency — up to $250,000 per depositor, so even if the bank itself fails you get your dollars back. The simulator treats this strategy as risk-free and doesn't model the rare case of a balance above that insurance limit.
Set this to whatever rate your own bank advertises, then watch how the safe savings line stacks up against the riskier strategies on the chart.
Formula:balance next month = balance × (1 + (APR ÷ 12) × (1 − tax rate)) (tax rate is the Global federal-tax assumption)
Compounding: Monthly: APR/12 applied per month boundary.
session-only · leave the default to use the simulator's baseline
USDC DeFi Lending
Supply USDC into a major DeFi lending venue (Aave / Compound) at a quoted supply APR. USD-denominated, with smart-contract risk modelled as scenario events.
Initial (month 0)
$10,000.00
Final (month 36)
$11,463.02
Return
+14.63%
Deepest drawdown
none — never below a prior peak
Months below deployment
0
Risk profile
Price: None
Counterparty: Low
Contract: Medium
Liquidity: Low
Context only — the chart runs the default above unless you edit this assumption.
30d range:
0.0327 – 0.0366
90d range:
0.0298 – 0.0366
365d range:
0.0298 – 0.06
The yearly interest rate (APR = Annual Percentage Rate) you earn by lending out USDC. A few terms first: USDC is a 'stablecoin' — a digital dollar that's meant to always be worth exactly $1, backed by real dollars held in reserve. 'DeFi' (decentralized finance) means lending and borrowing run by open software on a blockchain instead of by a bank. You deposit (the jargon is 'supply') your USDC into a lending app like Aave or Compound, other people borrow it, and you collect interest.
It pays more than a bank savings account because it isn't a bank: there's no FDIC insurance, and you're trusting the software (a 'smart contract') not to be hacked and the borrowers' collateral to hold up. In real markets this rate drifts up and down with how much people want to borrow; the simulator holds one steady rate for the whole run so this line stays easy to compare against the others.
Formula:balance next month = balance × (1 + (APR ÷ 12) × (1 − tax rate)) (tax rate is the Global federal-tax assumption)
Compounding: Monthly: APR/12 applied per month boundary.
session-only · leave the default to use the simulator's baseline
XRP/RLUSD AMM LP
Provide liquidity to an XRP/RLUSD trading pool. Earns a share of swap fees and pays impermanent loss when XRP price moves. You can switch the pool's pricing rule between full-range Constant Product and Concentrated Liquidity on the Assumptions page.
Initial (month 0)
$9,970.00
Final (month 36)
$5,671.92
Return
-43.11%
Deepest drawdown
−$4,317 (−43.3%, month 18)
Months below deployment
36 of 36
Risk profile
Price: High
Counterparty: None
Contract: Medium
Liquidity: Medium
App default — set by the app's creator, no live data source. Edit if you have a different view.
An extra sliver of slippage that hits ONLY the AMM liquidity-pool strategy when you join it. To supply an XRP/RLUSD pool you need equal dollar amounts of BOTH tokens, so the protocol takes your dollars and spends half of them buying XRP. That half-purchase nudges the price slightly against you — a small extra cost on top of the ordinary entry slippage. ('Slippage' = the gap between the price you saw and the price you got.) Measured in basis points (bps): 1 bps = 0.01%. Charged once, at deployment.
Formula:AMM LP pool value at month 0 = capital × (1 − (entryBps + halfBuyBps) ÷ 10,000)
Compounding: Applied once at deployment; does not compound across the horizon.
session-only · leave the default to use the simulator's baseline
XRP/RLUSD AMM Concentrated-Liquidity Range (± half-width)
🟢 low impact
±20% (range from 80% to 120% of deployment price; fees amplified ≈5.5×)
App default — set by the app's creator, no live data source. Edit if you have a different view.
This only matters when Curve Type is set to 1 (Concentrated Liquidity). It's how tight a price band you pack your money into, measured as a percentage above and below the price on the day you deposit. ±20% means your money is working for prices from 20% below to 20% above your starting price.
The trade-off: a tighter band earns dramatically more in fees while the price stays inside it (roughly 5.5× more at ±20%, roughly 10.5× more at ±10%) — but it also magnifies 'impermanent loss' by that same factor, and earns you nothing whenever the price slips outside the band. This is the classic liquidity-provider gamble, made adjustable. The full-range Constant Product curve ignores this knob entirely.
Formula:Inside the band: monthly fees and impermanent loss are both amplified by the same factor. Outside the band: zero fees, and your position holds only the asset that's now out of range.
Compounding: Only consulted when curve type is 1 (ConcentratedLiquidity); ignored otherwise.
session-only · leave the default to use the simulator's baseline
App default — set by the app's creator, no live data source. Edit if you have a different view.
This picks HOW the pool spreads your deposited money across possible prices — the difference between earning steady-but-thin fees and concentrated-but-fragile ones.
0 = Constant Product: the standard, simplest kind of pool. Your money is spread thinly across every possible price, from near-zero all the way up. You always earn some fees no matter where the price goes, but the amount is modest.
1 = Concentrated Liquidity: you bunch your money into a narrow price band around today's price (you set how narrow with the next knob). While the price stays inside your band you earn far more in fees; but if the price wanders outside it you earn nothing until it returns, and 'impermanent loss' inside the band is magnified too. It's the same idea as the proposed XRPL 'Swappable Curves' upgrade — see the Glossary for the plain-English version.
Formula:0 = full-range Constant Product (today's XRPL AMM) · 1 = Concentrated Liquidity (you also pick a price band below)
Compounding: Curve type is fixed for the whole simulation horizon (same as the spec's pool-creation-time immutability).
session-only · leave the default to use the simulator's baseline
XRP/RLUSD AMM Daily Volume (USD)
🟢 low impact
$150,000 / day
App default — set by the app's creator, no live data source. Edit if you have a different view.
'Volume' is the total dollar value of swaps flowing through the pool each day. More trading means more fees collected by the pool — and you earn a slice of those fees in proportion to your share of the pool. This is the single biggest lever on how much a liquidity position makes: double the daily volume and you double the fees you earn.
When live market data is available this default is refreshed automatically from a public data feed, but you can always type in your own estimate for the pool you're picturing.
Formula:monthly fee revenue (USD) = fee tier × daily volume × your pool share × 30 days
Compounding: Linear in fee revenue; daily figure × 30 = monthly fee throughput for the pool.
session-only · leave the default to use the simulator's baseline
XRP/RLUSD AMM Fee Tier
🟢 low impact
0.30% per swap
App default — set by the app's creator, no live data source. Edit if you have a different view.
First, the setup. An AMM — Automated Market Maker — is software that lets people swap one token for another (here, XRP and RLUSD, a digital dollar that's meant to stay worth $1) out of a shared pot of both tokens called a 'liquidity pool'. If you deposit into that pot you become a 'liquidity provider' and earn a cut of the fees traders pay.
The 'fee tier' is the slice the pool skims off every swap. At 0.30%, a trader swapping $1,000 through the pool leaves $3 in fees behind, divided among everyone who supplied the pool. Your personal cut depends on how big your share of the pool is and how much trading flows through it (the next two knobs). Turning this tier up scales everyone's fee earnings straight up.
Formula:monthly fee revenue (USD) = fee tier × daily volume × your pool share × 30 days (added to the pool each month, after tax)
Compounding: Linear in fee revenue; pairs with daily-volume and pool-share knobs.
session-only · leave the default to use the simulator's baseline
XRP/RLUSD AMM Pool Share
🟢 low impact
0.01% of pool
App default — set by the app's creator, no live data source. Edit if you have a different view.
Your slice of the whole pool. If you supply 0.01% of everything in the pool, you collect 0.01% of the fees it earns. Your share stays fixed for the whole run — the simulator doesn't model you adding more or pulling some out partway through.
One subtlety worth knowing: while your SHARE (the percentage) stays put, the dollar VALUE of that share rises and falls as XRP's price moves. Because of the way pools automatically rebalance between the two tokens, a provider can end up with fewer dollars than if they'd simply held the two tokens in their wallet — an effect called 'impermanent loss' (see the Glossary). A bigger share earns more fees but ties up more of your money.
Formula:monthly fee revenue (USD) = fee tier × daily volume × your pool share × 30 days
Compounding: Pool-share stays fixed across the simulation horizon; v1.5 doesn't model adding/withdrawing liquidity mid-run.
session-only · leave the default to use the simulator's baseline
XRP/RLUSD AMM Quoted APR
🟢 low impact
0.18% APR (placeholder until first telemetry snapshot)
App default — set by the app's creator, no live data source. Edit if you have a different view.
Some platforms publish their own headline APR (yearly return) for a pool. This is shown for reference only, so you can compare a platform's advertised number against the return YieldSim actually works out from the fee tier, the trading volume, and your share of the pool. The simulator does NOT feed this number into the chart — your chart line comes from those underlying pieces, not from a platform's marketing figure.
Formula:(observational; from xrpl-utilities.com telemetry payload's amm.top_pairs[XRP/RLUSD].apr)
session-only · leave the default to use the simulator's baseline
XRP/RLUSD AMM TVL (USD)
🟢 low impact
$5,000,000 (placeholder until first telemetry snapshot)
App default — set by the app's creator, no live data source. Edit if you have a different view.
'TVL' stands for Total Value Locked — the total dollars' worth of tokens currently sitting in the pool. It matters because a bigger pool makes your fixed deposit a SMALLER share of the whole, which earns a smaller slice of the fees.
This figure is shown for reference only — the simulator doesn't plug it directly into the math. It's here so you can sanity-check the daily-volume and pool-share numbers against what a real pool actually looks like.
Formula:(observational; from xrpl-utilities.com telemetry payload's amm.top_pairs[XRP/RLUSD].tvl_usd)
session-only · leave the default to use the simulator's baseline
Tokenized T-bills
Hold a tokenized U.S. T-bill wrapper. USD-denominated, monthly-compounding treasury yield. Wrapper bankruptcy is the only failure mode (high recovery).
Context only — the chart runs the default above unless you edit this assumption.
30d range:
0.0384 – 0.0392
90d range:
0.0378 – 0.0396
365d range:
0.0368 – 0.057
A 'T-bill' (Treasury bill) is a short-term loan you make to the U.S. government — one of the safest places to put money anywhere, because the government pays it back. A 'tokenized' T-bill is the same thing repackaged as a digital token you can hold in a crypto wallet: a company (the 'wrapper') buys the real T-bills and passes the interest through to you, keeping a small fee. This is the yearly rate (APR = Annual Percentage Rate) you receive after that fee.
The rate tracks short-term government interest rates, which is why it lands close to a savings account. The one risk beyond the government itself is the wrapper company — you're trusting it to actually hold the T-bills and stay in business — and that small risk is captured by the LGD knob below.
Formula:balance next month = balance × (1 + (APR ÷ 12) × (1 − tax rate)) (tax rate is the Global federal-tax assumption)
Compounding: Monthly: APR/12 applied per month boundary.
session-only · leave the default to use the simulator's baseline
Tokenized T-bills LGD
🟢 low impact
10% (90% recovery)
App default — set by the app's creator, no live data source. Edit if you have a different view.
'LGD' stands for Loss-Given-Default — the fraction of your money you'd lose for good if the wrapper company failed, after everything recoverable is collected. It's set LOW here because the thing backing your token is U.S. government debt, which doesn't disappear just because the wrapper company goes bankrupt: in a failure you'd be claiming assets that still exist, much like how brokerage customers are usually made whole when their broker collapses. A 10% LGD means you'd expect to recover about 90 cents on each affected dollar.
Formula:net loss = default magnitude × loss-given-default × current balance (computed per event)
session-only · leave the default to use the simulator's baseline
Flare FXRP + Firelight stXRP
Move XRP onto the Flare network and stake it into Firelight for XRP-paid yield. Adds two ways to lose at once: the bridge and the staking contract.
Initial (month 0)
$9,985.00
Final (month 36)
$3,499.90
Return
-64.95%
Deepest drawdown
−$6,641 (−66.5%, month 18)
Months below deployment
36 of 36
Risk profile
Price: High
Counterparty: Low
Contract: High
Liquidity: Medium
App default — set by the app's creator, no live data source. Edit if you have a different view.
A one-time fee charged when a strategy has to 'bridge' your XRP onto another blockchain to earn its yield — today that's the Flare-Firelight strategy, which moves XRP over to the Flare network. (Bridging means locking up your real XRP and minting a stand-in token on the other chain.) It's charged once, at the moment you deploy, and measured in basis points (bps): 1 bps = 0.01%, so 10 bps on a $10,000 deposit is about $10. It stacks on top of entry slippage, so the full cost of getting started is entry + bridge.
Compounding: Applied once at deployment; does not compound across the horizon.
session-only · leave the default to use the simulator's baseline
Flare FXRP + Firelight stXRP APR
🟢 low impact
4% APR (XRP-basis, monthly compounding)
Live reading:0.058·LLM-Research 2026-08-31
Context only — the chart runs the default above unless you edit this assumption.
30d range:
0.058 – 0.058
(1 sample)
90d range:
0.058 – 0.058
(1 sample)
365d range:
0.058 – 0.095
(263 samples)
This strategy earns yield by moving your XRP onto a different blockchain called Flare and putting it to work there. Two steps, each with a piece of jargon. First you 'bridge' your XRP to Flare: bridging means locking up your real XRP and getting a matching stand-in token (here called FXRP) on the other chain. Then you 'stake' that FXRP into a service called Firelight, which hands back a yield-bearing token called stXRP. 'Staking' just means committing your tokens to help run a network in exchange for rewards.
This APR (Annual Percentage Rate) is the yearly reward, paid in XRP terms — your XRP pile grows. The bridging step itself pays nothing; it's just the toll you cross to reach the yield. The catch: each extra step (the bridge, the staking service) is one more piece of software that could be hacked or break, which is why this carries more smart-contract risk than simply holding XRP in your own wallet.
Heads-up on the number itself: as of July 2026 no Flare product advertises a fixed rate, and the yields people do report are being topped up by a temporary rewards program now paying out its FINAL month (it expires in July 2026 with no replacement announced). So treat any high figure as possibly temporary — the 4% default is a deliberately cautious estimate of what might survive once that subsidy stops. Nobody will know the real post-subsidy rate until the first yield readings land in August 2026.
Formula:XRP balance next month = XRP balance × (1 + (APR ÷ 12) × (1 − tax rate)) (tax rate is the Global federal-tax assumption)
Compounding: Monthly on the XRP balance — yield accrues in XRP, not USD.
session-only · leave the default to use the simulator's baseline
earnXRP
An XRP yield product that won't reveal what it does with your money. The chart shows its advertised yield minus a 'risk-premium' discount for those hidden risks.
Initial (month 0)
$9,995.00
Final (month 36)
$3,666.33
Return
-63.32%
Deepest drawdown
−$6,571 (−65.7%, month 18)
Months below deployment
36 of 36
Risk profile
Price: High
Counterparty: High
Contract: Medium
Liquidity: Medium
Context only — the chart runs the default above unless you edit this assumption.
30d range:
0.06 – 0.06
(0 samples)
90d range:
0.06 – 0.06
(0 samples)
365d range:
0.05 – 0.07
(262 samples)
The headline yield 'earnXRP' advertises — the big number on the marketing page. earnXRP stands in for any 'opaque wrapper': a product that promises a yield but won't fully show you what it's doing with your money behind the scenes. Because you can't see the risks you're taking, this claimed number on its own does NOT drive your chart. The chart uses this figure minus a 'risk-premium drag' (the next knob), which discounts the promise to reflect those hidden risks.
Looking ahead: regulated, traditional-finance institutions are beginning to offer a tamer cousin of this — they custody your crypto for you, spread it across several yield sources, and pay you a regular distribution, taking a management fee in return. The trade is usually lower risk and far less learning curve in exchange for a slightly smaller net yield. There's no separate line for that on the chart yet (it would behave much like this one), but you can model it right here: set a modest claimed yield and treat the drag as the management fee rather than as hidden risk.
One naming note: there is now a real product on the Flare network literally called 'earnXRP', and it's actually a fairly transparent vault paying a modest rate (~3–4% in early 2026). Don't confuse it with this slider. 'earnXRP' here is a generic stand-in for the OPAQUE, high-marketing-claim wrapper archetype — the lesson is the gap between a flashy headline rate and what's actually left after hidden risk. To model the real, transparent Flare vault instead, set a low claimed rate (~4%) with little-to-no drag.
Formula:(not directly applied — see effective APR below)
session-only · leave the default to use the simulator's baseline
earnXRP Risk-Premium Drag
🟢 low impact
4% APR drag (→ 6% effective)
App default — set by the app's creator, no live data source. Edit if you have a different view.
How much to shave off earnXRP's advertised yield to account for the risks it hides. Because earnXRP won't show you exactly what it does with your money, its realistic expected return is lower than the headline once you price in the chance of a bridge being hacked, a smart-contract bug, sloppy execution, or the custodian losing your funds. Subtracting this 'drag' from the claimed rate gives the 'effective' (realistic) yield the chart actually draws. Example: a 10% claim minus a 4% drag becomes a 6% line.
Compounding: Subtracted from claimed APR; never exceeds claimed (strict invariant — engine throws).
session-only · leave the default to use the simulator's baseline
XLS-66d Custom Broker
Lend XRP into the XLS-66d vault under a broker you tune yourself. Dial APR, first-loss buffer, and LGD on the Assumptions page to model any point on the conservative→aggressive spectrum.
Initial (month 0)
$9,995.00
Final (month 36)
$2,104.29
Return
-78.95%
Deepest drawdown
−$8,117 (−81.2%, month 18)
Months below deployment
36 of 36
Risk profile
Price: High
Counterparty: High
Contract: None
Liquidity: Medium
Live source warming up — range bands appear after the daily refresh has run a few times.
This is the yearly interest rate (APR = Annual Percentage Rate) a lending broker pays you for letting it borrow your XRP. 'XLS-66d' is just the name of the XRP Ledger rulebook these on-chain lending brokers are built on — think of it as the standard that lets a broker take deposits and pay yield. The interest is paid in XRP, so your pile of XRP grows; that's separate from whether XRP's dollar price rises or falls.
Different brokers take on different amounts of risk to earn their yield, and that's what this dial represents. As a rough guide:
• Conservative brokers pay about 6–9% and lend cautiously.
• Moderate brokers pay about 9–12%.
• Aggressive brokers pay about 12–20%, but take bigger risks to do it.
Higher pay almost always means the broker is reaching for riskier loans — so read this knob together with the First-Loss Buffer and LGD knobs below, which decide how much a borrower failing to repay would actually cost you. Set the APR to match whatever rate a real broker advertises.
Reality check (mid-2026): the XLS-66 native-lending amendment is still in validator voting and is NOT live on the XRP Ledger yet — no such broker actually exists on mainnet, and there are no real lending pools or rates to point to. These numbers model a contingent, not-yet-available product so you can reason about it ahead of time; treat them as hypothetical until the amendment activates.
Formula:XRP balance next month = XRP balance × (1 + (APR ÷ 12) × (1 − tax rate)) (tax rate is the Global federal-tax assumption)
Compounding: Monthly on the XRP balance — yield accrues in XRP, not USD.
session-only · leave the default to use the simulator's baseline
XLS-66d Broker First-Loss Buffer
🟢 low impact
8% of deployed capital — Moderate-archetype midpoint
App default — set by the app's creator, no live data source. Edit if you have a different view.
The 'first-loss buffer' is a cushion of the broker's OWN money that gets used up FIRST when borrowers fail to repay — shielding your deposit. It's shown as a fraction of the money you put in: an 8% buffer on a $10,000 deposit means the broker has set aside $800 of its own capital to absorb losses before any loss can reach you. This is the broker's 'skin in the game' — the more of its own money is on the line, the more carefully it tends to lend.
Rough guide: cautious brokers run a thick 8–15% buffer; moderate ones 4–8%; aggressive ones a thin 1–4%. A thinner buffer is cheaper for the broker but gets exhausted faster, so a run of bad loans reaches YOUR money sooner. Lower this to model a broker with less of its own skin in the game.
Formula:buffer in USD = first-loss fraction × your deployed capital (fixed at deployment, does not grow)
session-only · leave the default to use the simulator's baseline
XLS-66d Broker LGD
🟢 low impact
55% (45% recovery) — Moderate-archetype midpoint
App default — set by the app's creator, no live data source. Edit if you have a different view.
A 'default' is when a borrower can't pay back a loan. 'LGD' stands for Loss-Given-Default: out of the money tied up in a loan that defaults, the fraction you ultimately lose for good — after everything recoverable has been collected (for instance, by selling off the borrower's 'collateral', the assets they pledged as backing). The rest, (100% − LGD), comes back to you; that returned part is called the 'recovery'.
So a 55% LGD means that when a default hits, you eventually get back about 45 cents on each affected dollar and lose the other 55. Rough guide: cautious brokers run 40–60% LGD; moderate 50–70%; aggressive 60–85%. A higher number means weaker collateral and a smaller recovery when things go wrong. Raise it to model a looser, riskier broker.
Formula:net loss = default magnitude × loss-given-default × current balance (computed per event)
session-only · leave the default to use the simulator's baseline
CEX Earn
Hold XRP in a centralized exchange's 'Earn' product for an XRP-paid yield. The big risk is the exchange itself going bankrupt — modelled as recovering only part of your money.
Initial (month 0)
$9,995.00
Final (month 36)
$3,583.97
Return
-64.14%
Deepest drawdown
−$6,609 (−66.1%, month 18)
Months below deployment
36 of 36
Risk profile
Price: High
Counterparty: High
Contract: None
Liquidity: Low
App default — set by the app's creator, no live data source. Edit if you have a different view.
A 'CEX' is a Centralized Exchange — a company like Binance, Kraken, Coinbase, or Bitrue where you buy and hold crypto in an account THEY control. Their 'Earn' products pay you a yearly rate (APR = Annual Percentage Rate) in exchange for letting them put your XRP to work.
Realistic range is about 1.5–8%. 'Flexible' products you can withdraw anytime pay the least (roughly 1.5–2%); 'fixed-term' products that lock your XRP up for a set period pay a bit more (3–5%); and limited-time promotions can reach 8% or higher. Whatever rate you set, the chart grows your XRP balance at it month by month.
Formula:XRP balance next month = XRP balance × (1 + (APR ÷ 12) × (1 − tax rate)) (tax rate is the Global federal-tax assumption)
Compounding: Monthly on the XRP balance — yield accrues in XRP, not USD.
session-only · leave the default to use the simulator's baseline
CEX Earn LGD
🟢 low impact
65% (35% recovery — Celsius / Voyager midpoint)
App default — set by the app's creator, no live data source. Edit if you have a different view.
'LGD' (Loss-Given-Default) is the fraction of your money you'd lose for good if the exchange went bankrupt. It's high here for a structural reason: when you use a centralized exchange, IT holds your crypto, and many exchanges quietly lend it out or reuse it behind the scenes (the jargon is 'rehypothecation') instead of keeping it set aside for you in a 'segregated' account that's legally yours. If the exchange fails, you become just another creditor in its bankruptcy and recover only what the courts can claw back.
History sets the range: Celsius depositors recovered roughly 50–60%, Voyager about 35%, BlockFi about 40%, FTX 70%+. A 65% LGD means you'd expect to lose about 65 cents on the dollar and recover the other 35.
Formula:net loss = default magnitude × loss-given-default × current XRP balance (computed per IssuerDefault event)
session-only · leave the default to use the simulator's baseline
XRPL Auto-Yield
A product that auto-splits your XRP between liquidity pools and institutional loans. It markets eye-popping yields (88%!) built on token giveaways and cherry-picked peaks; the chart shows the realistic rate left after discounting eight hidden risks (about 10%).
Initial (month 0)
$9,995.00
Final (month 36)
$4,014.58
Return
-59.83%
Deepest drawdown
−$6,412 (−64.1%, month 18)
Months below deployment
36 of 36
Risk profile
Price: High
Counterparty: Medium
Contract: Medium
Liquidity: Low
App default — set by the app's creator, no live data source. Edit if you have a different view.
The headline APR (yearly return) the marketing splashes across the page — the 2026 launch promo quoted a jaw-dropping 88%. This number is informational ONLY: your chart line is NOT 88%, it's the 'effective' rate (this minus the risk-premium drag below). The whole point of this strategy is to show why a number like 88% almost never survives contact with reality.
For context, honest XRP yields run far lower: real liquidity pools make about 5–15%, real institutional XRP lending about 4–8%, and even a generous blend tops out near 12%. An 88% headline gets there by stacking three tricks:
(1) Paying you in the protocol's OWN newly-printed token instead of real XRP. That token typically loses 80–95% of its value within a year, so the 'yield' quietly melts away.
(2) Cherry-picking a peak — taking a return seen during a brief trading frenzy and advertising it as if it lasted all year.
(3) Charging you little during the launch promo, then raising the protocol's cut to 30–40% later (via a rule change the founding team controls) once enough money is locked in.
Formula:(not directly applied — see the Risk-Premium Drag row below for the effective APR)
session-only · leave the default to use the simulator's baseline
XRPL Auto-Yield Risk-Premium Drag
🔴 high impact
78% APR drag (→ 10% effective at default 88% claimed)
App default — set by the app's creator, no live data source. Edit if you have a different view.
How much to discount that flashy marketing claim before it touches your chart. Subtracting this 'drag' from the claimed APR gives the EFFECTIVE (realistic) rate that actually compounds. It bundles together eight separate ways an auto-routing yield product can quietly cost you:
1. Smart-contract risk — a bug or hack in the router software itself.
2. Impermanent loss — when XRP's price moves, the automated pools hand back less XRP than you put in (see the Glossary).
3. Borrower default — even 'vetted' big borrowers go bust (the hedge fund 3AC was considered rock-solid right up until it collapsed in 2022).
4. Knock-on failures — the router stacks many pools on top of one another, so a problem in any single one can cascade through into your balance.
5. Token-collapse — most of the advertised yield is paid in the protocol's own token; if that token drops 90% after launch, the 'yield' was never really there.
6. Worst-pool selection — auto-routers tend to dump deposits into whichever pool has the most room, which is often the least healthy one.
7. Lockups — a 30–90 day withdrawal queue means you can't get out fast when the headline falls apart.
8. Fee hikes — the protocol's cut can be raised later by a vote the founding team controls.
The default 78% drag against an 88% claim leaves 10% effective — right in the realistic yield band, comparable to a moderate XLS-66d broker. Dial it DOWN (say 0.04) to see what the marketing number alone would produce; dial it UP for a more skeptical view. (It can't go above the claimed rate — the math won't let drag alone create a loss.)
Compounding: Subtracted from claimed APR; never exceeds claimed (strict invariant — engine throws).
session-only · leave the default to use the simulator's baseline
Your Portfolio
Allocate across legs. Whole percents only; must sum to 100.
Run the simulation to redraw your line.
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
Total
100%
Your composite line is the weighted sum of whichever legs you allocate to
— its risk varies with your legs. Compare it against earnXRP for the same
diversification idea expressed two ways: Your Portfolio is fully
transparent (you picked the legs); earnXRP is opaque.
Scenario & price path
RareCatastrophic
Pick which world to test against: the scenario sets the SHAPE of the
XRP price journey, your price expectation sets its magnitude, and the
optional overlay adds real historical chop on top.
Picking a built-in scenario pre-loads its canonical default
(Slow Bull +100%, Crypto Winter −68%, Holding Pattern 0%, etc.).
Override here to test the same scenario shape at any magnitude.
0% = flat. 100 = doubling. 1000 = 11× (a parabolic run).
Every input here is either what you control
(capital, horizon, scenario choice, your allocation — the dashboard's
controls) or what the world does
(rates, taxes, costs — assumptions you can override but not decide).
The knobs below are world-assumptions that drag every
yield-bearing line at once.
Entry Slippage (bps)
🟢 low impact
5 bps (0.05%)
App default — set by the app's creator, no live data source. Edit if you have a different view.
'Slippage' is the small loss you take the instant you buy into a position: the price you actually get is a hair worse than the price you saw, because the market moves slightly as your order fills. This knob sets that cost at the moment you deploy, when your dollars are first converted into the asset.
It's measured in 'basis points' (bps), a finance unit where 1 bps = 0.01% (so 100 bps = 1%). At 5 bps, buying $10,000 of something costs you about $5. It applies to the strategies that have to buy a non-stable asset to get going — holding XRP, the XLS-66d broker, the AMM pool, Flare-Firelight, and earnXRP. The dollar-based strategies (savings, USDC lending, T-bills) don't buy anything volatile, so they ignore this.
Formula:starting position value = capital × (1 − entrySlippageBps ÷ 10,000) (per applicable strategy)
Compounding: Applied once at deployment; does not compound across the horizon.
session-only · leave the default to use the simulator's baseline
Exit Slippage (bps)
🟢 low impact
5 bps (0.05%) — not currently applied, since the simulator doesn't model selling
App default — set by the app's creator, no live data source. Edit if you have a different view.
'Slippage' is the small loss you take when you trade, because the price you actually get is slightly worse than the one you saw. This knob would model that cost at the moment you SELL out of a position at the end of the run.
In practice the simulator deliberately does NOT model selling — it shows what your position is worth while you still hold it, not what you'd pocket after cashing out. (Deciding when to sell is timing the market, which this tool stays out of on purpose; the Methodology section explains why.) So this setting is here for completeness and doesn't currently change your chart. It's measured in basis points (bps): 1 bps = 0.01%.
Formula:final-month value = pre-exit value × (1 − exitSlippageBps ÷ 10,000) (only when liquidation-value toggle is ON)
Compounding: Would apply once at the final month if disposal were modelled; today it is not, so it leaves your chart unchanged.
session-only · leave the default to use the simulator's baseline
US Federal Marginal Tax Rate
🟢 low impact
24% (a common US bracket — set this to YOUR marginal rate)
App default — set by the app's creator, no live data source. Edit if you have a different view.
This is the slice of your earnings that goes to U.S. federal income tax, applied as a drag on every strategy that pays yield. 'Marginal rate' means the tax rate on your next dollar of income — for many people that's the 22–24% bracket. The simulator trims each strategy's yield by this percentage, as if you paid the tax each year and reinvested whatever was left.
Two things it deliberately does NOT tax. First, simply holding XRP while its price climbs: that's an 'unrealized gain' — a gain on paper only — and isn't taxed until you actually sell, which this simulator doesn't model. Second, state, local, and non-U.S. taxes: not modelled at all. Set it to 0 to see pre-tax numbers, or to your own bracket for a more realistic after-tax picture.
Formula:monthly growth = 1 + (APR ÷ 12) × (1 − tax rate) (applied to the yield, not to principal)
Compounding: The tax rate reduces the yield rate the strategy compounds each month — equivalent to paying tax in the same period the yield arrives and reinvesting the net.
session-only · leave the default to use the simulator's baseline
XRP Price Appreciation Over Horizon
🟢 low impact
0% (flat — default before you pick a scenario)
App default — set by the app's creator, no live data source. Edit if you have a different view.
'Appreciation' simply means how much the price goes up (or down). This knob is YOUR guess for how much XRP's price will change, in percent, between the day you deploy and the end of the run — and it's the single biggest driver of every strategy that's held in XRP.
How to read the number: 0 means flat (no change); 100 means +100% (the price doubles); 1000 means +1000% (the price becomes 11×); −50 means the price is cut in half. Each named scenario comes pre-loaded with a sensible default that fits its story — Slow Bull +100%, Crypto Winter −68%, Holding Pattern 0%, and so on — so picking a scenario fills this in for you. You're then free to override it to ask things like "what would Slow Bull look like if XRP rose 500% instead?"
Why it matters so much: for anything held in XRP, your dollar result is simply the amount of XRP you hold times XRP's price. Yield grows the AMOUNT of XRP you own; this knob grows the PRICE of each one — and the two multiply together. That's how an XRP strategy paying 7.5% a year can turn $10,000 into roughly $137,000 if XRP also climbs +1000% over three years. The dollar-based strategies (savings, USDC, T-bills) hold no XRP, so this knob does nothing to them — and watching that contrast on the chart is itself one of the lessons.
Compounding: Multiplies through XRP-denominated yield: at any month t, position USD = XRP balance × scenario price at t. Yield grows the XRP balance; this knob grows the price. The two compound in USD.
session-only · leave the default to use the simulator's baseline