Custom scenario builder

The path shape describes the base case of how crypto markets actually move during any given year. Sustained chop, slow grind up, slow grind down, indifferent sideways — most calendar months sit inside one of these shapes. Pedagogically, Routine scenarios isolate the strategy-vs-strategy question with minimal noise from price drama. Use them as the baseline against which the Episodic and Rare scenarios get tested.

See the Scenarios section in the Classroom for one card per scenario.

Documented multiple times across the last decade of crypto — at least one such event per major cycle, but not the modal week-to-week experience. Parabolic blow-off tops (2017, 2021), single-broker stress events (Cred 2020, BlockFi 2022), brief stablecoin depegs (USDC March 2023, USDT October 2022), sequence-of-returns whipsaws. Pedagogically, Episodic scenarios test whether a strategy can absorb a documented-but- non-routine stress and still produce a sensible chart line. Worth running every candidate strategy through at least one Episodic scenario before trusting it.

See the Scenarios section in the Classroom for one card per scenario.

At most a handful of documented occurrences across the entire crypto era. Total bridge drains (Ronin / Wormhole / Nomad — all in 2022), exchange-collapse-class fraud (Mt. Gox 2014, Celsius / FTX / Voyager 2022). Worth modelling precisely BECAUSE everyday discussion under-weights them: survivorship bias hides the strategies that didn't survive these events, leaving readers with a rosier picture of "safe" yield than the historical record supports. Rare frequency does NOT mean low impact — read the Severity badge alongside it. A Rare × Catastrophic combination is the simulator's canonical "this can take you to zero" warning.

See the Scenarios section in the Classroom for one card per scenario.

No permanent USD loss against deployment. Drawdowns either fully recover within the horizon (e.g. USDC Depeg's one-month markdown that snaps back to face value) or are offset by net price appreciation (e.g. Parabolic Bull's 47% retrace from peak still leaves you 3× up from deployment). The worst-exposed strategy still ends at or above deployment USD. Mild does NOT mean zero impact — the chart still shows the drawdown and the recovery; the user can see how much the dip would have hurt if they needed liquidity during it. But by horizon end, the position is whole.

See the Scenarios section in the Classroom for one card per scenario.

Substantial drawdown OR partial position loss with no in-horizon recovery. The worst-exposed strategy finishes meaningfully below deployment USD, but the damage is not a total wipeout — yield strategies on USD-denominated assets typically remain positive, and even the damaged XRP-denominated lines retain some residual value. Examples: Crypto Winter (68% USD price decline that doesn't recover by horizon end), Whipsaw (sequence-of-returns damage even when end price is positive), Winter + Aggressive Default (broker loss layered onto a winter). These are the scenarios that teach "yield isn't enough — price exposure can dominate" or "counterparty risk lands hardest when the broker is least able to absorb it."

See the Scenarios section in the Classroom for one card per scenario.

Total or near-total wipeout of an exposed position with no in-horizon recovery. The canonical "this can take you to zero" tier — the pedagogical purpose is precisely to make the failure mode visceral. Examples: Bridge Exploit (100% haircut on the affected protocol — Flare-Firelight line goes to zero), Celsius Redux (total broker fraud blowing through the 2.5% first-loss buffer with ~70% net loss to principal, layered onto a winter price drawdown). Other strategies in the same chart still finish near their non-event values — diversification is one of the lessons these scenarios teach.

See the Scenarios section in the Classroom for one card per scenario.