Dashboard

XRP price expectation over your horizon

% over horizon

Picking a built-in scenario pre-loads its canonical default (Slow Bull +100%, Crypto Winter −68%, Holding Pattern 0%, etc.). Override here to test the same scenario shape at any magnitude. 0% = flat. 100 = doubling. 1000 = 11× (a parabolic run).

Deployment capital (USD)

Horizon (months)

Scenario shape

+ Build custom

Volatility overlay (historical chop)

Lay realistic XRP/USD chop from a historical window of your choice on top of the scenario's smooth path. This is calibration, not prediction — the price moves shown already happened.

Enable overlay

Intensity (%)

Lookback end date

Lookback months

Custom Portfolio

Custom Portfolio

Your own blend across any of the ten standalone strategies. Give each strategy you want to include a whole-number percentage (each one you include is called a 'leg'), and the percentages must add up to exactly 100. The Custom Portfolio line on the chart is simply the weighted sum of those legs, month by month. It's the see-through opposite of earnXRP — the same idea of spreading your money around, except here you can see and adjust every piece.

Formula `portfolio value each month = sum of (weight × that leg's value)`

See the Custom Portfolio entry in the Classroom Strategies section for more.

Allocate across legs. Whole percents only; must sum to 100.

Unallocated XRP

HYSA

USDC DeFi Lending

XLS-66d Custom Broker

XRP/RLUSD AMM LP

Tokenized T-bills

Flare FXRP + Firelight stXRP

earnXRP

CEX Earn

XRPL Auto-Yield

Total 100%

Strategy comparison · Holding Pattern Routine

🟢 Routine Routine

The path shape describes the base case of how crypto markets actually move during any given year. Sustained chop, slow grind up, slow grind down, indifferent sideways — most calendar months sit inside one of these shapes. Pedagogically, Routine scenarios isolate the strategy-vs-strategy question with minimal noise from price drama. Use them as the baseline against which the Episodic and Rare scenarios get tested.

See the Scenarios section in the Classroom for one card per scenario.

Mild

🟢 Mild Mild

No permanent USD loss against deployment. Drawdowns either fully recover within the horizon (e.g. USDC Depeg's one-month markdown that snaps back to face value) or are offset by net price appreciation (e.g. Parabolic Bull's 47% retrace from peak still leaves you 3× up from deployment). The worst-exposed strategy still ends at or above deployment USD. Mild does NOT mean zero impact — the chart still shows the drawdown and the recovery; the user can see how much the dip would have hurt if they needed liquidity during it. But by horizon end, the position is whole.

See the Scenarios section in the Classroom for one card per scenario.

USD value · months 0–36

Each line is one possible future, not a forecast. Compare strategies across scenarios to see which hold up under which conditions.

Per-strategy summary · Holding Pattern

Read each row as one question: is the upside worth the risk? With no risk you'd always take the highest Return; with no upside you'd always take the lowest Risk. The skill is judging the middle.

Strategy Strategy The yield-bearing position being simulated. Click the ⓘ icon next to any strategy name in the rows below to see what that specific strategy is, how it earns its yield, and what risks it carries. See the Strategies section in the Classroom for a deeper write-up of each.	Initial (USD) — month 0 Initial USD The dollar value of the position at month 0, the moment your capital is deployed. Identical across every strategy in the table because they all start from the same deployment capital you entered above.	Final (USD) — month 36 Final USD The dollar value of the position at the end of the simulation horizon — the last month you chose. For the strategies held in XRP (everything except the dollar-based savings, USDC lending, and T-bills), this number already converts the XRP you'd be holding into dollars using the scenario's price in that final month — so you're always comparing dollars to dollars across every line. Formula `final USD = final XRP balance × XRP/USD price at the final month (for XRP-denominated strategies)`	▲ Upside Return Return % The total period return — the final dollar value divided by the initial dollar value, minus one, shown as a percent. The number is computed AFTER US federal income tax on the strategy's yield (default 24% — the most common US single-filer bracket; editable on the Assumptions page under the Global card). The tax drag applies only to the yield itself; your principal, default losses, AMM impermanent loss, and Unallocated XRP's unrealised price appreciation are not taxed in the simulator. State, local, and international tax aren't modelled. Return shown here is for the whole horizon — it is not annualised, so compare strategies at the same horizon length rather than across horizons. Formula `return % = (final USD − initial USD) ÷ initial USD × 100 (yield is reduced by the federal tax rate)` Default: Tax default: 24% federal marginal — change it on the Assumptions page See the Methodology section in the Classroom for what the simulator does and does not tax.	▼ Risk Risk profile How to read the risk profile Every strategy carries a four-badge risk fingerprint so you can compare HOW risky each one is — not just how much it yields. The four dimensions are independent: • Price exposure — how much an XRP/USD price move flows through to the line. XRP-denominated strategies are High; USD-denominated (HYSA, USDC, T-bills) are None. • Counterparty risk — the chance an entity holding or borrowing your asset defaults, freezes withdrawals, or commits fraud. Brokers and custodial exchanges are High; self-custodied XRP is None. • Smart-contract risk — exploit / depeg / faulty-upgrade risk from a contract, bridge, or protocol. Bridges are High; bank deposits are None. • Liquidity risk — impermanent loss, lockups, redemption delays, off-ramp friction. Each is rated None / Low / Medium / High. "None" means structurally absent (HODL has no counterparty because there's no counterparty) — different from "Low" (present but small). Two strategies can be equally risky overall while carrying completely different KINDS of risk — that's exactly why this is four badges and not one score. This profile is structural and doesn't change when you turn a knob. To see WHICH knobs amplify a given risk, look at the 🟢/🟡/🔴 impact markers next to each assumption on the Assumptions page: a strategy that's High on counterparty risk will have 🔴 high-impact loss-given-default and first-loss knobs. Read the two together to learn how to make a strategy safer or more dangerous, and how much each knob actually matters. Zoom out: this four-badge profile is the STRATEGY lens — one of three ways risk shows up in YieldSim. The scenario's frequency × severity badges describe the WORLD you're testing against; the assumption impact markers describe how much YOUR INPUTS move the answer. All three serve the one question — is the upside worth the risk? See that explainer for how the lenses fit together. See each strategy's card in the Classroom Strategies section for the per-dimension reasoning.
Unallocated XRP Unallocated XRP XRP exposed to price but not in any yield strategy — the no-yield baseline against which every yield strategy's contribution is measured. See this strategy's card in the Classroom Strategies section for the full write-up.	$9,995.00	$9,847.09	-1.48%	Price: High Counterparty: None Contract: None Liquidity: None
HYSA HYSA Park USD in a high-yield savings account at a fixed APR. FDIC-insured, no crypto exposure. See this strategy's card in the Classroom Strategies section for the full write-up.	$10,000.00	$11,078.86	+10.79%	Price: None Counterparty: Low Contract: None Liquidity: Low
USDC DeFi Lending USDC DeFi Lending Supply USDC into a major DeFi lending venue (Aave / Compound) at a quoted supply APR. USD-denominated, with smart-contract risk modelled as scenario events. See this strategy's card in the Classroom Strategies section for the full write-up.	$10,000.00	$11,463.02	+14.63%	Price: None Counterparty: Low Contract: Medium Liquidity: Low
XRP/RLUSD AMM LP XRP/RLUSD AMM LP Provide liquidity to an XRP/RLUSD trading pool. Earns a share of swap fees and pays impermanent loss when XRP price moves. You can switch the pool's pricing rule between full-range Constant Product and Concentrated Liquidity on the Assumptions page. See this strategy's card in the Classroom Strategies section for the full write-up.	$9,970.00	$10,137.84	+1.68%	Price: High Counterparty: None Contract: Medium Liquidity: Medium
Tokenized T-bills Tokenized T-bills Hold a tokenized U.S. T-bill wrapper. USD-denominated, monthly-compounding treasury yield. Wrapper bankruptcy is the only failure mode (high recovery). See this strategy's card in the Classroom Strategies section for the full write-up.	$10,000.00	$11,078.86	+10.79%	Price: None Counterparty: Low Contract: None Liquidity: Low
Flare FXRP + Firelight stXRP Flare FXRP + Firelight stXRP Move XRP onto the Flare network and stake it into Firelight for XRP-paid yield. Adds two ways to lose at once: the bridge and the staking contract. See this strategy's card in the Classroom Strategies section for the full write-up.	$9,985.00	$11,667.06	+16.85%	Price: High Counterparty: Low Contract: High Liquidity: Medium
earnXRP earnXRP An XRP yield product that won't reveal what it does with your money. The chart shows its advertised yield minus a 'risk-premium' discount for those hidden risks. See this strategy's card in the Classroom Strategies section for the full write-up.	$9,995.00	$11,287.73	+12.93%	Price: High Counterparty: High Contract: Medium Liquidity: Medium
XLS-66d Custom Broker XLS-66d Custom Broker Lend XRP into the XLS-66d vault under a broker you tune yourself. Dial APR, first-loss buffer, and LGD on the Assumptions page to model any point on the conservative→aggressive spectrum. See this strategy's card in the Classroom Strategies section for the full write-up.	$9,995.00	$12,359.89	+23.66%	Price: High Counterparty: High Contract: None Liquidity: Medium
CEX Earn CEX Earn Hold XRP in a centralized exchange's 'Earn' product for an XRP-paid yield. The big risk is the exchange itself going bankrupt — modelled as recovering only part of your money. See this strategy's card in the Classroom Strategies section for the full write-up.	$9,995.00	$11,034.16	+10.40%	Price: High Counterparty: High Contract: None Liquidity: Low
XRPL Auto-Yield XRPL Auto-Yield A product that auto-splits your XRP between liquidity pools and institutional loans. It markets eye-popping yields (88%!) built on token giveaways and cherry-picked peaks; the chart shows the realistic rate left after discounting eight hidden risks (about 10%). See this strategy's card in the Classroom Strategies section for the full write-up.	$9,995.00	$12,359.89	+23.66%	Price: High Counterparty: Medium Contract: Medium Liquidity: Low
Custom Portfolio Custom Portfolio Build your own blend across the standalone strategies. The see-through opposite of earnXRP — you pick, see, and can tweak every piece. See this strategy's card in the Classroom Strategies section for the full write-up.	$9,997.50	$11,187.21	+11.90%	Varies — inherits the risk of the legs you allocate to

Adjust the sidebar allocation to reshape the Custom Portfolio line — it's the weighted sum of whichever legs you allocate to. Compare it against earnXRP for the same diversification idea expressed two ways: Custom Portfolio is fully transparent (you picked the legs); earnXRP is opaque (claimed yield minus a risk-premium drag standing in for whatever's inside).